April 27, 2010-2010 Post-Draft Analysis and Why I Am A Bigger Fan of Jennifer Lopez
I know, I know. I did have one of my worst mock drafts ever this year. The Draft Board is going to be re-designed also. There are certain "draft experts" at certain websites that will no longer be considered "draft experts" by me. I have too many years on these guys to be considering their opinions. I had defensive end Tyson Alualu graded out as a very high second round pick, but not going at number ten. All hell broke loose after that pick and my head was spinning. Several "first-round" graded players dropped out of the first and second rounds. I knew Jimmy Clausen was dropping like an anchor, but I was too busy working on the Draft Board to think about updating the mock draft. I'm already over it. The 2011 Heard's Football Report Mock Draft is coming soon! Here is a great, and sometimes funny article by Gregg Easterbrook at ESPN. I could not have said it better.
Read the story at ESPN.com
Comments? Mike Heard can be contacted at mikeheard@juno.com

Growing up as a Los Angeles Rams fan, Merlin Olsen will always be one of my all-time favorite football players. Olsen was a member of the Rams' "Fearsome Foursome" defensive line that also included Rosey Grier, Deacon Jones, and Lamar Lundy. I had an electric football game as a kid and painted the plastic player figures to match the Rams' blue and white uniforms of that era. The Fearsome Foursome numbers 74, 75, 76 and 85 were the first to be painted and numbered. If I remember correctly, the Rams' teams of that era made it to the playoffs but never could advance against the great Minnesota "Purple People Eaters" and Dallas "Doomsday Defense" teams. RIP Merlin Olsen, gentle giant.
Comments? Mike Heard can be contacted at mikeheard@juno.com     Read the story at NFL.com

From a USA Today article by Reid Cherner and Tom Weir that listed some of the big quarterback misses in the history of the NFL College Player Draft:
1979: Pick #82-QB Joe Montana-Note: A long ways before I started following the NFL College Draft. I was 21 years old and having fun.
1994: Undrafted: QB Kurt Warner-Note: This was the first NFL College Draft that I worked on-a printed 365 page "scouting report" that was advertised in the USA Today Sports Outlet for $32.50 per copy. Fifty five college quarterbacks, but Kurt Warner was not listed.
2000: Pick #199-QB Tom Brady. Note: I was then publishing what was then titled "The Draftboard 2000-a nineteen page "draft workbook". The twenty-three quarterbacks were listed alphabetically, with Tom Brady listed second. There are "XFL" player notes throughout my copy. I will never forget "He Hate Me"! That was my last printed issue and  the first HFR website was on America Online. In that last printed issue, I noticed that appreciation was given to a lot of  draft websites that are no longer around.
   The USA Today article ends with this comment: "Remember how excited everyone was that Tee Martin won a national championship with the (Tennessee) Vols and Peyton Manning had not?"
   As player news comes out of the Senior Bowl,  the Mock Draft and REALLY Big Board are being updated at this website for the 2010 NFL Draft. Over the years, I have wondered if there is a future Hall of Famer in the NFL College Draft listed somewhere? Did I miss somebody? I have over 350 names listed on the REALLY Big Board this year. The 1994 NFL Draft will always be my first. Several players from that draft will or may be Hall of Famers.  The player names listed: Marshall Faulk, Bryant Young, Isaac Bruce, Kevin Mawae, Larry Allen, Willie McGinest, to name a few. Kurt Warner, who may or may not retire tomorrow, definitely will be in the Hall of Fame someday. Sorry I missed listing you, #13, but I am so glad that someone else noticed your talent.

Comments? Mike Heard can be contacted at mikeheard@juno.com Special thanks to Rumors & Reports website.

In last night's Sunday Night Football game, New England Patriot Head Coach Bill Belichick decided to go for a first down on fourth-and-two from his own 28 yard line with 2:08 to go in the fourth quarter. Leading 34-28, the short pass from quarterback Tom Brady to Kevin Faulk failed just short of the first down. Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning eventually threw a 1-yard pass to Reggie Wayne with thirteen seconds to go and with an extra point kick won the game. Did Coach Belichick make the wrong decision? Perhaps not.
   In a published article by Associated Press writer Ralph D. Russo, whenever the Pulaski Academy Bruins prep school football team faces a fourth down, they go for it. No matter the distance. And here is the thing-the strategy works. Coach Kevin Kelley and his Bruins won the Arkansas state championship last season in the state's third largest division. Kelley has a lot of data behind his decision. Texas Tech coach Mike Leach said "Statistically there's definitely some validity to it." In fact, Kelley is playing the percentages-even in the most extreme circumstances. According to his data, a team that takes over the ball at its opponents' 10 or closer has a ninety two percent chance of scoring a touchdown. A team that gains possession between its opponents 40-yard line and its 31 has a seventy seven percent chance of scoring a touchdown.
    So, Kelley figures, even if the Bruins fail to convert, he is only increasing his opponents' chances of scoring  a TD by fifteen percentage points more than if his team got off a decent punt. And it should be noted that the Bruins convert fifty percent of the time. A study by University of California-Berkeley economist David Romer that came out in 2005 determined NFL coaches should go for it on fourth down much more often than they do.
    "To me, it is a statistic, a position, a feel that gives the coach the "This is the right time to do this," LSU coach Les Miles said. Because Pulaski Academy's offense is always playing with four downs, it drastically alters play calling for him-third-and-nine is not automatically a passing down-and his opponent-third-and-nine does not automatically mean sending in an extra defensive back. Kelley said that on drives during which his team converts a fourth down, the Bruins score eighty four percent of the time. Coach Belichick risked everything, gambled, and lost. That is what coaches sometimes have to do-make the tough decision. What if the Patriots did convert and went on to win the game? There definitely would not be all of the negativity that is humming through the press and media about Coach Belichick. Kudos to Coach Belichick from me. Some of the press and media should be reading this article by Mr. Russo.    

Mike Heard can be contacted at mikeheard@juno.com

     ESPN announcer and former Coach Jon Gruden mentioned Bill Parcells' Formula for drafting a college quarterback during this past  Monday Night's Football game. This formula has been a huge discussion topic since it was mentioned:
Formula=Senior with 3+ years of starting experience, 23+ wins, and a college graduate.
Players that fit this description for the 2010 Draft:
Colt McCoy, Texas
Dan LeFevour, Central Mich
Max Hall, BYU
Tim Tebow, Florida
Todd Reesing, Kansas
Riley Skinner, Wake Forest
Zac Robinson, OK St (needs 3 more wins this season)
Eric Ward, Richmond
Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State
Dominic Randolph, Holy Cross
Derrick Fourroux, McNeese State

     I like Coach Parcells' formula. Look at his winning record. There are several more formulas out there, and one part of my own formula for drafting a college quarterback is pretty simple: Pass Efficiency Rating. The math is not simple for me personally. I let the rocket scientists figure it out. Here is the information:
The NCAA and NFL formulas are fundamentally similar, in that both compute the rating as the sum of points awarded in the same four categories:
1.Completions-per-attempt (completion percentage), The NFL awards 4.17 points per yard-per-attempt, while the NCAA awards 8.4.
2.Yards-per-attempt,
3.Interceptions-per-attempt,
4.Touchdowns-per-attempt.
The NCAA formula is: [ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ].
In 1979, when the NCAA developed the passing efficiency formula, they used average statistics from the previous 14 seasons of two-platoon football (which started in 1965). "8.4" was chosen so that the average passer would have a rating for yards-per-attempt and completion percentage of exactly 100. 330 (3.3 times touchdown percentage) and 200 (2.0 times interception percentage) were chosen to cancel each other out for the average passer.
I have a few more of my own factors that I add to my own formula, but drafting a college quarterback, or in fact any player will ALWAYS be a guessing game.
Special thanks to Two Bills Drive.com and STASSEN.com College Football Information
Mike Heard can be contacted at mikeheard@juno.com

April 12, 2009 - The Draft Bubble's Dirty Little Secret-From ESPN Magazine

April 2, 2009 - Da Dumb Bears gave up way too much for Jay Cutler!

March 28, 2009 - Welcome to my new blog page!

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